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Risk analysis · Updated 17 September 2026

Tax risks after the 2026 election

A structured review of the tax proposals that could hit Swedish business owners and private wealth. Every risk is based on public proposals, sourced, and assessed by likelihood and impact.

Overall assessment

Elevated

  1. Low
  2. Watch
  3. Elevated
  4. High
  5. Critical

According to the preliminary count, the Tidö parties have 173 seats against 176 for S, V, MP and C, and Magdalena Andersson is seen as best placed to form a government. The negotiating parties have proposed several tax increases, but the question of government is unresolved and the Centre Party demands lower taxes for people and businesses. We will raise the assessment if a government with a tax-raising programme takes shape.

Sources123

01Risk matrix

Likelihood times impact

The same method used in professional risk management: each risk is placed by how likely it is and how hard it hits if it happens.

High
        Medium
          Low
              LowMediumHigh
              ↑ LikelihoodImpact →
              Placements are Bolagsflytten's own assessment for the 2026–2030 term, based on the parties' proposals and the parliamentary situation. Select a risk for details.

              02Risk register

              Risk by risk

              What is proposed, who is affected and how we assess the situation.

              1. R-01High risk

                A billionaire tax is investigated or introduced

                StatusProposed by MP. V wants an inquiry. S and C say no.

                The Green Party (MP) wants a billionaire tax on fortunes above SEK 1 billion and expects it to raise over SEK 50 billion a year. The Left Party (V) has proposed an inquiry. The Social Democrats (S) have called the revenue estimates “fantasy sums”, and the Centre Party (C) says “absolutely not”. The Confederation of Swedish Enterprise warns that even the threat of a billionaire tax harms Sweden.

                What is proposed
                An annual tax on fortunes above SEK 1 billion. MP gives no rate, but the proposal has been described in terms of economist Gabriel Zucman's model: 2 per cent of wealth.
                Who is affected
                People with fortunes above SEK 1 billion, often owners of family businesses whose wealth consists of shares in their own company.
                Likelihood
                Medium
                Impact
                High

                Sources456789

              2. R-02High risk

                An exit tax for individuals

                StatusV wants an inquiry. S has investigated it before.

                Sweden currently has no general exit tax for individuals, but the ten-year rule means gains on Swedish shares can be taxed here for ten years after a move. The Left Party wants the government to come back with a proposal for exit taxation of individuals. The idea is not new: in 2022 the Social Democratic government launched an inquiry into taxing unrealised gains on emigration, which the Tidö government shut down by decision on 22 December 2022, more than a year before it was due to report. And under Sweden's constitution, if the Riksdag finds special grounds, a new tax can be charged from the day the government announced the proposal to the Riksdag.

                What is proposed
                Taxing unrealised gains when a person moves out of Sweden. V wants exit taxation of individuals (motion 2025/26:177). The 2022 inquiry (directive 2022:45) concerned exactly that.
                Who is affected
                Anyone holding shares with large unrealised gains who may move, such as founders and owners of unlisted companies.
                Likelihood
                Medium
                Impact
                High

                Sources10111213145657

              3. R-03High risk

                The 3:12 rules are tightened again

                StatusRejected by V and MP. S demands full financing.

                Since income year 2026, simpler and more generous rules apply to owner-managed companies: a base amount of SEK 322,400 per company, split across its shares and capped at one base amount per owner, and no requirement to draw a salary or to own at least 4 per cent. The Left Party and the Green Party rejected the reform. The Social Democrats entered a reservation saying the simplification should be implemented “in a way that is neutral for public finances”, that is, without costing the Treasury. The Left Party also wants an inquiry into uniform capital taxation of owner-managed and unlisted companies.

                What is proposed
                V: an inquiry into uniform capital taxation of owner-managed and unlisted companies, where dividends are currently taxed at 20 and 25 per cent. S: fully finance the simplification. No concrete plan to reverse the reform has been presented since the election.
                Who is affected
                Owners of owner-managed companies who take dividends or plan a sale, especially those who have already adapted to the 2026 rules.
                Likelihood
                Medium
                Impact
                High

                Sources15161718

              4. R-04Medium risk

                Higher taxes on capital and savings

                StatusProposed by S. V wants to go further.

                The Social Democrats want to keep the SEK 300,000 tax-free amount but add “a third tier of taxation for those with the largest holdings”. Their budget motion states neither a threshold nor a rate. Calculations reported in the media assume savings above SEK 3 million and a tax of about 1.365 per cent of the capital, against 1.065 per cent today. S also wants to “raise the taxation of large but low-taxed capital income”. The Left Party wants to cut the tax-free amount to SEK 50,000 and cap ISK accounts at SEK 2 million.

                What is proposed
                S: a third ISK tier for the largest holdings, with no threshold stated, and higher tax on large, low-taxed capital income. V: a tax-free amount of SEK 50,000 and a SEK 2 million cap on ISK accounts.
                Who is affected
                Individuals with large savings in ISK accounts or endowment insurance, and business owners moving capital from their company into private savings.
                Likelihood
                Medium
                Impact
                Medium

                Sources19202117

              5. R-05Medium risk

                Higher taxes on high incomes

                StatusProposed by S, V and MP.

                The Social Democrats want to restore the phase-out of the earned income tax credit for incomes above SEK 66,750 a month, and a preparedness tax should be “investigated and introduced”. Magdalena Andersson has said that no one earning under SEK 70,000 a month will pay more. The Left Party wants a 5 percentage point increase on monthly income above SEK 65,000, and the Green Party wants a new state income tax bracket at around SEK 70,000 a month.

                What is proposed
                S: phased-out earned income tax credit above SEK 66,750/month and a preparedness tax. V: +5 percentage points above SEK 65,000/month. MP: a new state bracket at about SEK 70,000/month.
                Who is affected
                Business owners, executives and specialists on high salaries, and companies competing for international talent.
                Likelihood
                Medium
                Impact
                Medium

                Sources1922172318

              6. R-06Medium risk

                The wealth tax returns

                StatusRejected by S, V, MP and C before the election.

                Sweden abolished its wealth tax from 2007. The last version charged 1.5 per cent on the part of net wealth above SEK 1.5 million for a single person. Before the 2026 election, S, V, MP and C all said no to bringing it back. The Left Party says the tax “brought in too little money” and wants a billionaire tax instead. The risk is low in the short term but has not disappeared: in May 2026 SVT reported internal demands within S for a wealth tax.

                What is proposed
                None of the parties in the government talks currently proposes a classic wealth tax. Within S there are internal demands for a wealth tax, according to SVT in May 2026.
                Who is affected
                Anyone with significant net wealth. How owners of unlisted companies are affected depends on the design: the previous tax exempted assets used in the business.
                Likelihood
                Low
                Impact
                High

                Sources24252627

              03International experience

              Three countries, one lesson

              Most OECD countries have abolished their wealth taxes, from twelve countries in 1990 to four in 2017. Where they remain or are being proposed again, experience shows how quickly conditions can change.

              01 / 03

              Norway

              A higher wealth tax, more wealthy residents leaving, and an exit tax tightened with effect from the day the proposal was published.

              1. 2022

                The tax goes up

                The wealth tax rises to 0.95 per cent, with a new 1.1 per cent step for fortunes above NOK 20 million. The valuation discount on shares is cut from 45 to 25 per cent.

                Sources28

              2. 2022–2023

                More wealthy residents leave

                48 people with net wealth above NOK 100 million leave Norway in 2022 and 34 in 2023, according to preliminary Finance Ministry figures. In 2011–2021 about eleven a year left. Among those leaving is Kjell Inge Røkke, who moves to Lugano.

                Sources293031

              3. 20 March 2024

                The exit tax is tightened

                The government publishes a proposal for a tougher exit tax on unrealised share gains. The rules apply to moves from that same day, although Parliament only passes them in December.

                Sources3233

              4. 2026

                The tax remains

                The wealth tax is 1.0 per cent above NOK 1.9 million and 1.1 per cent above NOK 21.5 million. 163 business owners have moved to Switzerland since 2020, according to a review by NRK.

                Sources3435

              02 / 03

              France

              A wealth tax abolished after years of departures, and a new tax on the largest fortunes that keeps returning to the debate.

              1. 2012–2016

                Departures increase

                Net departures of wealth-tax (ISF) payers rise to an average of 597 people a year, against 315 a year in 2007–2011, according to a French Senate report. The Senate notes that causality has not been established.

                Sources36

              2. 2018

                The wealth tax is abolished

                The general wealth tax is replaced by a tax on real estate only (IFI).

                Sources37

              3. 2025–2026

                The Zucman tax returns

                In February 2025 the National Assembly votes for a 2 per cent minimum tax on fortunes above €100 million. The Senate rejects it in June that year. On 16 September 2026 the Socialist Party proposes the tax again in its alternative budget for 2027.

                Sources383940

              03 / 03

              California

              A proposed one-time tax on billionaires. Those who acted when the proposal became known had time to move before the cut-off date. Anyone who moves during 2026 is still covered if it passes.

              1. 22 October 2025

                The proposal becomes known

                An initiative for a one-time 5 per cent tax on billionaires' net worth is filed with the state Attorney General. It would apply to anyone resident in California on 1 January 2026, about ten weeks later.

                Sources4142

              2. November–December 2025

                Several move in time

                Travis Kalanick moves to Austin on 18 December and David Sacks moves there the same month. Peter Thiel opens an office for his investment firm in Miami, Larry Page and Sergey Brin move to Miami and shift companies out of the state, and Don Hankey moves to Las Vegas.

                Sources43444546

              3. 1 January 2026

                Residency cut-off date

                According to the Hoover Institution, six billionaires left the state between the filing and the cut-off date, taking $536 billion with them, nearly 30 per cent of billionaires' combined wealth. Steven Spielberg becomes a New York resident the same day; his representative says the move was long planned.

                Sources4746

              4. During 2026

                A later move does not help

                Moving after 1 January does not change the tax, because residency on that date decides. Mark Zuckerberg is reported in February to be buying an estate in Miami, and the $170 million purchase closes in March, but no move has been confirmed.

                Sources484950

              5. 3 November 2026

                Voters decide

                The measure is on the ballot as Proposition 40. If passed, the tax falls due in 2027 and can be paid over five years at an additional cost.

                Sources51

              The lesson is the same in all three countries: decisive dates can be set before decisions are made. Those who already have a prepared alternative can choose calmly.

              04Planning

              Planning takes time. Rules can change quickly.

              Moving a company, capital or residence requires careful planning, and a negotiated alternative takes time to put in place. The experience of Norway and California shows that decisive dates can be set before decisions are made.

              1. 01

                Under Sweden's constitution, if the Riksdag finds special grounds, a new tax can be charged from the day the government announced the proposal to the Riksdag.

                Sources14

              2. 02

                In California, liability is determined by where a person lived on 1 January 2026, ten months before voters decide on the tax.

                Sources51

              3. 03

                Sweden already investigated taxing unrealised gains on emigration in 2022, and the Left Party wants a new inquiry into an exit tax.

                Sources1110

              4. 04

                The ten-year rule for share gains already applies today. A company that moves its tax residence is taxed as if its assets had been sold, with the option of deferral within the EEA.

                Sources1352

              05Worst case

              If it all happens at once

              Each proposal on its own is manageable. This table shows what happens if they are stacked, taking the harshest version of each. It is a stress test, not a forecast.

              Employer contributions

              Today31.42%

              Worst case31.42%

              No governing party proposes an increase.

              Sources53171819

              Marginal tax on salary

              Today52.4%

              Worst case57.4%

              The Left Party wants five percentage points on monthly income above SEK 65,000, and the earned income tax credit phased out between SEK 50,000 and 100,000 a month, which adds roughly another 8.7 points across that range. The Green Party wants the phase-out restored and a new bracket at SEK 70,000, without stating a rate.

              Sources215455171819

              Dividends within the allowance

              Today20%

              Worst case30%

              The Left Party wants an inquiry into uniform capital taxation of owner-managed and unlisted companies, but states no rate. Uniformity means the same 30 per cent as other capital income, and that is what we stress-test.

              Sources1517

              Corporate tax

              Today20.6%

              Worst case20.6%

              No increase is proposed. Together with the dividend tax, the combined tax on distributed profit is 36.5 per cent today and 44.4 per cent in the worst case.

              Sources21171819

              Savings in an ISK account

              Today1.065% of the capital above SEK 300,000

              Worst case1.365% above SEK 50,000

              S wants a third band for the largest holdings but states neither a threshold nor a rate; reported calculations use the government borrowing rate plus two percentage points. V and MP want the tax-free amount cut to SEK 50,000, and V also wants a SEK 2m cap per account. Our worst case combines the higher rate with the lower free amount.

              Sources5819171820

              Wealth tax

              TodayNone

              Worst case1.5% above SEK 1.5m

              Sweden's own wealth tax, as it stood when it was abolished in 2007. It exempted working capital in unlisted operating companies. This worst case does not, because that is how a billionaire tax on total wealth is meant to work.

              Sources2425

              Billionaire tax

              TodayNone

              Worst case2% above SEK 1bn

              The Green Party's proposal states no rate. The 2 per cent comes from the Zucman model, which the French National Assembly voted for in 2025 and the Senate rejected.

              Sources43839

              Property

              TodayMunicipal property fee, at most SEK 10,425

              Worst caseA state property tax under inquiry

              V wants to complement the municipal property fee with a state property tax and leave the design to an inquiry. No rate is stated.

              Sources5917

              Inheritance and gifts

              TodayNone

              Worst caseUnder inquiry as part of property taxes

              Inheritance and gift tax were abolished in 2004. V wants an inquiry into property taxes and points out that Sweden has neither inheritance tax, gift tax nor wealth tax.

              Sources6017

              On leaving

              TodayThe ten-year rule

              Worst caseTax on unrealised gains

              The 2022 inquiry into exit taxation was shut down. The Left Party wants the question examined again.

              Sources13111210

              Of another SEK 100 in salary cost

              SEK 64 goes to taxToday

              SEK 74 goes to taxWorst case

              Employer contributions plus marginal tax, at a salary inside the phase-out range and the average municipal rate.

              Share of salary cost and distributed profit that goes to tax

              • SEK 25m revenue, 12 employees

                SEK 800,000 salary, SEK 600,000 dividend, SEK 15m net wealth

                41.8%57.4%

              • SEK 150m revenue, 60 employees

                SEK 1.5m salary, SEK 5m dividend, SEK 120m net wealth

                40.7%69.3%

              To be straight about it: counting only what the parties have actually written in their budget motions, with no wealth tax returning, the tax bill rises by 10 per cent for the smaller owner and 18 per cent for the larger one. No governing party currently proposes a general wealth tax with a stated rate. The wealth tax is what decides whether this is an increase or an upheaval, and that is why it is worth preparing for.

              06Sources

              1. [01]Swedish Election Authority: Preliminary result, 2026 Riksdag election
              2. [02]SVT: Four scenarios for forming the next government, 15 September 2026
              3. [03]Centre Party: The Centre Party demands lower taxes for people and businesses, 30 January 2026
              4. [04]Green Party: A fairer tax system requires a billionaire tax, 1 September 2026
              5. [05]Riksdag: Motion 2025/26:4108 (V)
              6. [06]TV4: MP and V demand a billionaire tax, 18 May 2026
              7. [07]SVT: On the tax increases and the billionaire tax, 6 September 2026
              8. [08]SVT: Election live blog, the Centre Party on a billionaire tax, 11 September 2026
              9. [09]Confederation of Swedish Enterprise: Even the threat of a billionaire tax harms Sweden, 4 September 2026
              10. [10]TV4: V wants inquiries into a property tax and an exit tax, 16 May 2026
              11. [11]Riksdag: Committee directive 2022:45 on taxation on emigration
              12. [12]BDO: Inquiry into an exit tax is shut down, 2023
              13. [13]Riksdag: Income Tax Act (1999:1229), chapter 3 section 19 and chapter 22
              14. [14]Riksdag: Instrument of Government (1974:152), chapter 2 section 10
              15. [15]Swedish Tax Agency: New rules for owner-managed companies from income year 2026
              16. [16]Riksdag: Committee on Taxation opinion 2025/26:SkU1y
              17. [17]Riksdag: Motion 2025/26:2792 (V), budget motion
              18. [18]Riksdag: Motion 2025/26:3770 (MP), budget motion
              19. [19]Riksdag: Motion 2025/26:3551 (S), budget motion
              20. [20]Placera: How much S wants to raise the ISK tax above SEK 3 million, 26 November 2025
              21. [21]Swedish Tax Agency: Amounts and percentages 2026
              22. [22]Privata Affärer/TT: S says no one on a normal income will pay more tax, 1 September 2026
              23. [23]Privata Affärer: V leader says a billionaire tax could raise SEK 50 billion, 28 August 2026
              24. [24]Riksdag: Decision to abolish the wealth tax from 2007
              25. [25]Riksdag: State Wealth Tax Act (1997:323)
              26. [26]Tidningen Näringslivet: Election special, the parties' yes or no on the hottest issues, 14 August 2026
              27. [27]SVT: Internal demand on S for a rising wealth tax, 1 May 2026
              28. [28]Storting: Changes to the wealth tax from 2000 to 2024 (research note)
              29. [29]Storting: Written question on emigration of people with large fortunes, answered 5 January 2024
              30. [30]Storting: Written question on emigration 2011–2021, answered 23 November 2022
              31. [31]Financial Times via Swissinfo: Rich Norwegians flee to low-tax Switzerland as wealth levy bites, 16 December 2022
              32. [32]Deloitte Norway: The government proposes a tougher exit tax, March 2024
              33. [33]Storting: Legislative decision 17 (2024–2025) on exit tax
              34. [34]Lovdata: The Storting's tax resolution for 2026, wealth tax
              35. [35]NRK: The tax refugees, how many have moved to Switzerland, 16 May 2026
              36. [36]French Senate: Information report on the transformation of the wealth tax, 9 October 2019
              37. [37]OECD: The Role and Design of Net Wealth Taxes in the OECD, 2018
              38. [38]French Senate: Committee report on the proposed minimum tax on large fortunes, 2025
              39. [39]Public Sénat: The Senate rejects the Zucman tax, 12 June 2025
              40. [40]franceinfo: The Socialist Party's counter-budget brings back the Zucman tax, 16 September 2026
              41. [41]CalMatters: A tax on billionaires could be headed to California ballot, 24 October 2025
              42. [42]Foley & Lardner: California’s Proposed 2026 Billionaire Tax Act, 16 March 2026
              43. [43]Newsweek: California Loses Another Billionaire, 17 March 2026
              44. [44]San Francisco Chronicle: David Sacks opens Austin office as threat of proposed California ‘billionaire tax’ looms
              45. [45]The San Francisco Standard: Who’s leaving, who’s staying – billionaire tax tracker, 15 January 2026
              46. [46]Fortune: Only 6 billionaires left California over its proposed wealth tax, 17 March 2026
              47. [47]Hoover Institution: California’s proposed billionaire tax will cost the state an estimated $25 billion, 5 March 2026
              48. [48]CNBC: California’s controversial wealth tax proposal leaves billionaires with little way out, 8 January 2026
              49. [49]Fortune: Mark Zuckerberg reportedly buying on Miami’s Indian Creek Island, 12 February 2026
              50. [50]The Real Deal: Mark Zuckerberg’s $170M Indian Creek Island purchase sets Miami-Dade record, 2 March 2026
              51. [51]California Secretary of State: Proposition 40, official voter information guide 2026
              52. [52]Riksdag: Tax Procedure Act (2011:1244), chapter 63
              53. [53]Skatteverket: Employer contributions 2026
              54. [54]SCB: Average municipal tax rates 1930–2026, whole country
              55. [55]Svensk författningssamling: SFS 2024:1131, abolished phase-out of the earned income tax credit
              56. [56]Riksdag: Written communication 2022/23:103, the exit taxation inquiry was discontinued on 22 December 2022
              57. [57]Riksdag: Motion 2025/26:177 (V), Tax avoidance
              58. [58]Skatteverket: Investment savings account (ISK)
              59. [59]Skatteverket: Property fee and property tax
              60. [60]Riksdag: Bill 2004/05:25, abolition of inheritance and gift tax

              The risk assessments are Bolagsflytten's own and do not constitute tax or legal advice. The election result is preliminary, and proposals may change during government formation and budget negotiations. Last reviewed 17 September 2026.

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